How to Evaluate Threats in Chess Properly
How should you judge threats in chess? Under-react, and bad things happened. Over-react, and you are in a passive position. What should you do? This article deals with this sensitive topic.
Threats are scary. It is not easy to judge the relative strength of these threats. Sometimes we underestimate these threats, and then we find ourselves losing material, or worse, being checkmated. If we overestimate them, then we will go on the defensive. Many chess players, sometimes even grandmasters, over-react to moves that appear to threaten something.
When you calculate their threats, look at what you could do to stop it, or look at how you can ignore it. Here’s a pretty basic example. A rook is threatening black’s queen. However, instead of moving it, black moves his rook. White realizes that if he takes the queen, a back-rank checkmate will follow.
However: even if you can ignore their threat for one move, maybe the next move will be a killer. Depending on how much time you have on your clock, you should allot a lot of it to these complex positions. For example: Let’s say you have 60 minutes on your clock. You should allot 1 minute per move, on average. (In the opening, if you know the variations, you can move as fast as you want. But be careful!) However, if you see a checkmate staring you in the face, you should take at least 10 minutes to think about it. Once you have a good move, check out all of your opponent’s responses to it. If it stands up, take 30 seconds more. If it still stands up, play it. You don’t have to use at least 10 minutes, but if it is a crucial part of the game, it is better to use more time than less time.
When your opponent makes a move, look at what they are threatening! This is one of the most important rules in chess. Sometimes, they could be threatening a sequence of moves that works out to their advantage. If their threat is legitimate, or can be realized in the next few moves, take measures to stop it. If their threat isn’t real, act with impunity. There isn’t any formula for figuring out how to judge threats; rather, calculation is the key quality.
Sometimes, when you are in a bad position, it is a good idea to stand up and walk around. Of course, this is only possible with longer time controls. In a tournament hall, you can get up and walk around the room once or twice. This will relieve the tension in your mind, and serve to calm you. But don’t do this every move; only do this when you feel that your mind is strained, and you need a way to relax it.
Ludek Pachman wrote: “A position is not advantageous purely because it looks good at a given moment, but only if it can look even better in the future.” There are some positions that look good at given moments, but the underlying fundamentals of them are not sound. White’s position might look good, but if he isn’t developed, then maybe in 10 moves the tables will have turned.Though one side’s position might look at first very powerful, and it might seem to contain a lot of threats, look past that. Appraise the dynamics coolly. White may have the two bishops, a factor which is powerful in the endgame. Black’s king might be stuck in the center. However, in a blocked position, knights are better; when pieces are traded off, and an endgame is reached, centralized kings are sometimes the deciding factor. Look past the apparent strength of their position. If you see that it will not hold up in 5 moves, or 10 moves, or 15 moves, play to enhance your advantages. However, the longer it takes for their apparently powerful position to disintegrate, the more you must be on the lookout. He might have an intermezzo (typically, a move played before doing something expected, i.e. recapturing, etc. Sometimes an intermezzo in the form of a check are decisive). The longer it takes to realize your advantages, the longer you should think.
However, if your opponent’s position will grow better in 10 moves, then you must be on the lookout. If their impressive-looking position actually is impressive, then you need to figure out the best defense. If they have a better position, you must figure out a plan that will neutralize their plusses while increasing your own. If they are counterattacking on the wing, then you should counterattack in the center. Many people like to attack, and sometimes they attack prematurely. If they do, counterattack in the center, and punish them for their mistakes. These moves, too, should have much time spent on them.
When you assess a position, assess the static factors first. These are the long-term advantages. They include a pawn majority, the two bishops, greater space, and control of a file. There are also long-term negatives, such as holes in a position, an isolated pawn, a doubled pawn, a backwards pawn, etc. (When playing against such pawn weaknesses, you should occupy the square in front of the weak pawn.) After you assess the static factors, then assess the dynamic factors. These are short-term advantages. Superior development, the initiative, and control of the center fall under dynamic advantages. (However, if the control of the center is with pawns, or is a long-term advantage, it is considered static.) Dynamic factors in a position also decide the value of certain plussess and negatives.One side could have the 2 bishops, but if the position is locked up, then the side with the knights will be better. If one side has an isolated pawn, but its advance generates threats, then the dynamic factors in the position favor the side with the isolated pawn. Sometimes dynamic factors such as development can be more important than static factors. If your opponent has dynamic advantages, see if you can neutralize them. Sometimes, you can neutralize the dynamic features, and then your static advantages will start to show.
In short: the dynamic factors are important, but if the position can be opened up and the dynamic advantage neutralized, the static factors will begin to show.
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