This chapter, we will be tackling how to calculate the percentages of winning by using a little simple maths, a pinch of logic, and the lump of grey stuff between your ears. This is only a template, and is not foolproof. I advise you to experiment and create your own type of formula to calculate the chances of winning these kind of games. By reading this article you agree that all losses are your own, and I will not be held responsible for any losses cause directly or indirectly by this article or the author.

In this chapter we will be using the game “21″ as an example. The rules of “21″ are simple. The deck is shuffled, and each player takes 2 cards.  A banker is selected and this person is special. If the banker wins, everyone must pay him their bets. If he loses, he must pay everyone their bets worth in money. As you can see, the banker plays a game of “high risk, high return. After that, everyone looks at their two cards and keep the values of his/her cards to him/herself. If the two cards values together are < 15, then the person must draw one card from the deck. If a person draws 5 cards and still gets below 21, he immediately wins and the banker must pay him 2x his bet. In this game, there can be more than 1 winner. The person with the highest value of his/her 2 cards win. However, there can be multiple people with the same “highest” card value, so there can be multiple winners. This is where the maths and luck comes in. To draw or not to draw? If you get > 21, you automatically lose, but DO NOT open your cards for the banker to see! If other people, or the banker get > 21, you don’t have to pay him! However, if you open your hand early, you WILL have to pay him regardless of his/her hand. So obviously, you must be smart when it comes to drawing cards. A way of calculating is like this: In the game, there are 11 values. Ace (can be 1 or 11), 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, Jack, Queen, King (All are worth 10), and Ace again as 11, the highest value in the game. The best hand possible is a royal (Jack, Queen or King) and an Ace, for a total of 21, meaning you automatically win, and the banker has to pay you double your bet. Now you know the basics, on to the math. If you drew two cards and got a Jack and a 2, you have to draw. You draw a 5. That’s 17, not really that high…but if you draw, you may lose. To draw or not? The calculation is like this: The number of people, the number of cards you can draw and still not lose, and some common sense. Let’s say 4 people are playing. Number of people = 4. Your value is 17. 21 – 17 = 4. You can draw an Ace, a 2, a 3, or a 4 and still not lose. 4 x 4 (There are 4 sets in the game of each card) – 4 (Number of people) x 2 = 16 - 8 = 8. That means you have an  (roughly) 8/52 chance of getting the card you need. That’s 8 / 52 x 100% = 15.39% chance of winning. Not really good odds, so you would be better off trying to keep in the game than wish for a 21 and draw out of hope that Lady Luck smiles on you. The best odds you can get and still have a choice about whether to draw or not is at a value of 15, where there are 6 x 4 cards that you can still win if you draw, 4 people, so 6 x 4 – 4 x 2 = 24 – 8 = 16. 16 / 52 x 100% = 30%. These are the best odds you can possibly get. As a rule of thumb if the odds < 20% don’t draw another card. (Although, if you have 15 you must as well draw a card as you are almost sure to lose with a meagre 15.)

Play smart, don’t get addicted, and keep watching this space.

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