It seems like an odd thing to say – that you may still lose, even with a winning betting system. But, sadly, it’s a fact.

How might this come about?

Well, through a scenario that goes something like this:

We know that all betting systems are cyclic in that they go through good periods, where they win and then go through bad periods, where they lose. Now, let’s suppose that the system has been tested for 12 months. During this period, let’s assume that it behaved impeccably. In fact, it exceeded even your wildest expectations. So, you decide to put it live with the expectation of making your fame and fortune and you start putting your hard-earned on the selections that the system identifies.

Just like all new systems, it immediately starts to lose. You were fully aware that, initially, it might do this. However, you weren’t expecting the bad run to continue as long as it has. In fact, it’s the worst losing run that you have ever seen the system produce. But, you tested it for 12 months and you have faith in it. Yet, the losing run persists and you have already lost half of your original betting bank. What do you do? Cut your losses or continue? If you cut your losses and stop using the system, at least you will salvage half of your original betting bank. But, if you do, you will be writing the other half off. If you continue, you may recover your lost funds. But, if you do, you may lose what remains of your betting bank.

At this point, Sod’s Law comes into play. If you cease betting, the system will have its best winning run ever and will regain all of its losses and a lot more besides. If you continue, the system will continue its losing streak and you will lose the remainder of your betting bank. It’s a clear case of damned if you do and damned if you don’t.

You have tested the system for 12 months. You have confidence in it. So, you continue to use it and it continues to lose. Sod’s Law.

Eventually, the system’s losing steak becomes so bad that it results in the total loss of your betting bank.

What do you do now? Cut your losses or continue? If you cut your losses and stop using the system, at least you will not waste any more of your money. But, if you do, you will be completely writing your original bank off. If you continue, you may recover your lost funds. But, if you do, you may lose another betting bank. At this stage, one’s faith in a system becomes severely tested. Another clear case of damned if you do and damned if you don’t.

Reluctantly, you decide to quit but continue to monitor the system.

Surprise, surprise. The system immediately turns around and starts winning. In fact, it has the longest winning streak you have ever seen the system produce. This isn’t that surprising though, given that the system has just had the longest losing streak that you have ever witnessed. So long was the winning run, in fact, that not only did it recover the betting bank that was completely lost, it made a lot more besides.

And this is the problem with systems. They are cyclic in that they have both winning and losing periods. Some of which can be excessive. However, the cycles aren’t regular. As such, they aren’t predictable. Just because a system wins in the long term, you could well end up losing the whole of your betting bank first, due to a protracted bad run. Following a long losing streak, your belief in the system will be severely tested. Do you continue in the hope of recovering your losses but risk losing more or do you cease in the certainty that you will not lose any more money but having to accept that the past losses must be completely written off to experience?

This last question isn’t easy to answer and, in fact, there may not be an answer. It might just be a case of ‘ya pays ya money and ya takes ya choice’ or as Clint Eastwood says in the film ‘Dirty Harry’ (1971): ‘You’ve got to ask yourself one question: ‘Do I feel lucky?’ Well, do ya punk?’.